FC Midtjylland 3–2 Red Bull Salzburg

FC Midtjylland

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Red Bull Salzburg

1/15/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Estádio Do Algarve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Midtjylland37%

×Draw21%

Red Bull Salzburg41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC MidtjyllandExpected goals in this matchRed Bull Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.96

FC Midtjylland

1.85

Red Bull Salzburg

1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

2.38

creates per match

2.67

1.25

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

FC Midtjylland

2.38

Red Bull Salzburg

2.67

allows per match

FC Midtjylland

1.25

Red Bull Salzburg

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Midtjylland+0.00on par

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Midtjylland ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

FC Midtjylland or draw

59%

FC Midtjylland or Red Bull Salzburg

79%

Draw or Red Bull Salzburg

63%

Winning margin

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

19%

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

84%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

55%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

28%

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

86%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

58%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

47%

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Midtjylland at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Midtjylland attack 2.38 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.85

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.67 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Midtjylland scores more

37%

level

21%

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

41%

Red Bull Salzburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff