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FC Midtjylland vs Lazio — UEFA Europa League 2018

FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Lazio
Lazio
9/15/2022UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 2MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FC Midtjylland59%
×Draw22%
Lazio19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Midtjylland
1.96
Lazio
1.03

FC Midtjylland creates 90% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

FC Midtjylland
2.07
Lazio
0.93

allows per match

FC Midtjylland
1.13
Lazio
1.86

finishing

FC Midtjylland+0.00on par
Lazio+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Midtjylland ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Midtjylland or draw
81%
FC Midtjylland or Lazio
78%
Draw or Lazio
41%

Winning margin

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+
35%
Lazio wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals
86%
FC Midtjylland 2+ goals
58%
FC Midtjylland 3+ goals
31%
Lazio 1+ goals
64%
Lazio 2+ goals
28%
Lazio 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)
75%
Lazio (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Midtjylland at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Lazio away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Midtjylland attack 2.07 + Lazio defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.96

Lazio attack 0.93 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FC Midtjylland scores more
59%
level
22%
Lazio scores more
19%

FC Midtjylland at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Midtjylland vs Lazio

FC Midtjylland beat Lazio 5-1 in UEFA Europa League on September 15, 2022.

The match was played at MCH Arena in Herning.