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FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen — Superliga 2018

FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
A. Buksa 90+1' (pen), 29'
O. Diao 86'
M. Krüger-Johnsen 39'
V. Froholdt 78'
M. Elyounoussi 56'
4/17/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Championship Round - 4MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Midtjylland38%
×Draw26%
FC Copenhagen36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Midtjylland
1.40
FC Copenhagen
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

FC Midtjylland
1.82
FC Copenhagen
1.43

allows per match

FC Midtjylland
1.28
FC Copenhagen
0.98

finishing

FC Midtjylland+0.38scores more
FC Copenhagen+1.57scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Midtjylland ↓

FC Copenhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Midtjylland or draw
64%
FC Midtjylland or FC Copenhagen
74%
Draw or FC Copenhagen
62%

Winning margin

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+
18%
FC Copenhagen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals
75%
FC Midtjylland 2+ goals
41%
FC Midtjylland 3+ goals
17%
FC Copenhagen 1+ goals
74%
FC Copenhagen 2+ goals
39%
FC Copenhagen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)
52%
FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Midtjylland at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

FC Copenhagen away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.98 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Midtjylland attack 1.82 + FC Copenhagen defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.40

FC Copenhagen attack 1.43 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Midtjylland scores more
38%
level
26%
FC Copenhagen scores more
36%

FC Midtjylland at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
A. BuksaFC MidtjyllandFC Midtjylland · F
8.3

Match Events

29'
A. Buksa
30'
Kevin Mbabu
39'
M. Krüger-Johnsen↳ K. Mbabu
46'
A. Şimşir← M. Krüger-Johnsen
46'
R. Bardghji← J. Larsson
46'
E. Achouri← G. Gocholeishvili
46'
T. Delaney← M. Garananga
56'
M. Elyounoussi↳ E. Achouri
60'
Andreas Cornelius
64'
A. Chiakha← M. Elyounoussi
65'
D. Castillo← K. Mbabu
65'
J. Andersson← P. Bravo
70'
V. Byskov← A. Şimşir
72'
V. Claesson← A. Cornelius
78'
V. Froholdt↳ V. Claesson
82'
Franculino Djú← Dani Silva
86'
O. Diao↳ V. Byskov
90+1'
Pantelis Hatzidiakos
90+1'
A. BuksaPenalty

Possession

34%FC

Shots

14FC

Pass accuracy

48%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
34%Possession66%
14Total Shots18
3Corners5
13Fouls16
Shots
14Total Shots18
6On Target6
6Off Target9
2Blocked3
10Inside Box9
4Outside Box9
Passing
34%Possession66%
257Total Passes517
192Accurate Passes425
75%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls16
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen

FC Midtjylland beat FC Copenhagen 4-2 in Superliga on April 17, 2025.

Goals: A. Buksa (29', 90+1' pen), M. Krüger-Johnsen (39'), M. Elyounoussi (56'), V. Froholdt (78'), O. Diao (86').

FC Copenhagen controlled possession (66%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at MCH Arena in Herning.