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FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen — Superliga 2018

FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
3/1/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 20MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Midtjylland38%
×Draw26%
FC Copenhagen36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Midtjylland
1.40
FC Copenhagen
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

FC Midtjylland
1.82
FC Copenhagen
1.43

allows per match

FC Midtjylland
1.28
FC Copenhagen
0.98

finishing

FC Midtjylland+0.38scores more
FC Copenhagen+1.57scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Midtjylland ↓

FC Copenhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Midtjylland or draw
64%
FC Midtjylland or FC Copenhagen
74%
Draw or FC Copenhagen
62%

Winning margin

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+
18%
FC Copenhagen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals
75%
FC Midtjylland 2+ goals
41%
FC Midtjylland 3+ goals
17%
FC Copenhagen 1+ goals
74%
FC Copenhagen 2+ goals
39%
FC Copenhagen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)
52%
FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Midtjylland at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

FC Copenhagen away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.98 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Midtjylland attack 1.82 + FC Copenhagen defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.40

FC Copenhagen attack 1.43 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Midtjylland scores more
38%
level
26%
FC Copenhagen scores more
36%

FC Midtjylland at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: FC Midtjylland 2–0 FC Copenhagen

FC Midtjylland beat FC Copenhagen 2-0 in Superliga on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at MCH Arena in Herning.