FC Midtjylland 0–4 Atalanta: Result & Stats

FC Midtjylland

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Atalanta

A. Miranchuk 88'

L. Muriel 42'

A. Gómez 36'

D. Zapata 26'

10/21/2020

UEFA Champions League · Group D - 1MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Midtjylland37%

×Draw24%

Atalanta39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC MidtjyllandExpected goals in this matchAtalanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.58

FC Midtjylland

1.55

Atalanta

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.22

creates per match

1.72

1.44

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

FC Midtjylland

1.22

Atalanta

1.72

allows per match

FC Midtjylland

1.44

Atalanta

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Midtjylland+0.00on par

Atalanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Midtjylland ↓

Atalanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FC Midtjylland or draw

61%

FC Midtjylland or Atalanta

76%

Draw or Atalanta

63%

Winning margin

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

18%

Atalanta wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

79%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

46%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

20%

Atalanta 1+ goals

79%

Atalanta 2+ goals

47%

Atalanta 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

49%

Atalanta (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Midtjylland at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Midtjylland attack 1.22 + Atalanta defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.55

Atalanta attack 1.72 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Midtjylland scores more

37%

level

24%

Atalanta scores more

39%

Atalanta at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91

D. Zapata

Atalanta · F

8.3

Match Events

26'

D. Zapata↳ C. Romero

36'

A. Gómez↳ D. Zapata

42'

L. Muriel

60'

Evander← S. Kaba

68'

M. Pašalić← A. Gómez

68'

J. Iličić← L. Muriel

74'

Pione Sisto

75'

L. Vibe← A. Mabil

76'

N. Madsen← J. Cajuste

80'

M. Pessina← R. Freuler

80'

A. Miranchuk← D. Zapata

84'

Cristian Romero

86'

J. Palomino← C. Romero

87'

B. Kraev← F. Onyeka

87'

M. Anderson← P. Sisto

88'

A. Miranchuk↳ J. Iličić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCAtalanta

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots18

4Corners5

10Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots18

3On Target10

6Off Target6

0Blocked2

3Inside Box12

6Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

438Total Passes483

354Accurate Passes398

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3