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FC Miami City vs Sarasota Metropolis — USL League Two 2018

FC Miami City
FC Miami City
FT
4 – 1
Sarasota Metropolis
Sarasota Metropolis
7/13/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 16Tropical Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FC Miami City52%
×Draw21%
Sarasota Metropolis27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Miami City
2.20
Sarasota Metropolis
1.55

FC Miami City creates 42% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 5 away

creates per match

FC Miami City
1.80
Sarasota Metropolis
1.40

allows per match

FC Miami City
1.71
Sarasota Metropolis
2.60

finishing

FC Miami City+0.00on par
Sarasota Metropolis+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Miami City ↓

Sarasota Metropolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

FC Miami City or draw
73%
FC Miami City or Sarasota Metropolis
79%
Draw or Sarasota Metropolis
48%

Winning margin

FC Miami City wins by 2+
31%
Sarasota Metropolis wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Miami City 1+ goals
89%
FC Miami City 2+ goals
64%
FC Miami City 3+ goals
37%
Sarasota Metropolis 1+ goals
79%
Sarasota Metropolis 2+ goals
46%
Sarasota Metropolis 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

FC Miami City (draw refunded)
66%
Sarasota Metropolis (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Miami City at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.71 · 35 matches

Sarasota Metropolis away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Miami City attack 1.80 + Sarasota Metropolis defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.20

Sarasota Metropolis attack 1.40 + FC Miami City defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Miami City scores more
52%
level
21%
Sarasota Metropolis scores more
27%

FC Miami City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Miami City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Miami City vs Sarasota Metropolis

FC Miami City beat Sarasota Metropolis 4-1 in USL League Two on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at Tropical Park Stadium.