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FC Miami City vs Daytona — USL League Two 2018

FC Miami City
FC Miami City
PST
22:00
Daytona
Daytona
6/24/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 39Central Broward Regional Park (Lauderhill, Florida)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Miami City32%
×Draw29%
Daytona39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Miami City
1.06
Daytona
1.19

Daytona creates 12% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 3 away

creates per match

FC Miami City
1.80
Daytona
0.67

allows per match

FC Miami City
1.71
Daytona
0.33

finishing

FC Miami City+0.00on par
Daytona+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Miami City ↓

Daytona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Miami City or draw
61%
FC Miami City or Daytona
71%
Draw or Daytona
68%

Winning margin

FC Miami City wins by 2+
13%
Daytona wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Miami City 1+ goals
65%
FC Miami City 2+ goals
29%
FC Miami City 3+ goals
9%
Daytona 1+ goals
70%
Daytona 2+ goals
33%
Daytona 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Miami City (draw refunded)
45%
Daytona (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Miami City at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.71 · 35 matches

Daytona away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Miami City attack 1.80 + Daytona defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Daytona attack 0.67 + FC Miami City defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Miami City scores more
32%
level
29%
Daytona scores more
39%

Daytona at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Daytona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Miami City face Daytona (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with FC Miami City hosting Daytona. Match starts June 24, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Miami City host Daytona at Central Broward Regional Park (Lauderhill, Florida).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.