Daytona 1–1 FC Miami City: Result & Stats

Daytona

FT

1 – 1

FC Miami City

6/21/2019

USL League Two · Round 1Daytona Beach Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Daytona48%

×Draw24%

FC Miami City28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DaytonaExpected goals in this matchFC Miami City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.23

Daytona

1.70

FC Miami City

1.23

Daytona creates 38% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 31 away

1.40

creates per match

1.45

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Daytona

1.40

FC Miami City

1.45

allows per match

Daytona

1.00

FC Miami City

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Daytona+0.00on par

FC Miami City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daytona ↓

FC Miami City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Daytona or draw

72%

Daytona or FC Miami City

76%

Draw or FC Miami City

52%

Winning margin

Daytona wins by 2+

26%

FC Miami City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Daytona 1+ goals

82%

Daytona 2+ goals

51%

Daytona 3+ goals

24%

FC Miami City 1+ goals

71%

FC Miami City 2+ goals

35%

FC Miami City 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Daytona (draw refunded)

64%

FC Miami City (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daytona at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

FC Miami City away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daytona attack 1.40 + FC Miami City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

FC Miami City attack 1.45 + Daytona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Daytona scores more

48%

level

24%

FC Miami City scores more

28%

Daytona at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Daytona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff