FC Miami City 7–1 Caledonia: Result & Stats

FC Miami City

FT

7 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Caledonia

7/6/2022

USL League Two · Round 60Central Broward Regional Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Miami City66%

×Draw18%

Caledonia16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Miami CityExpected goals in this matchCaledonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.14

FC Miami City

2.47

Caledonia

1.14

FC Miami City creates 117% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 7 away

1.80

creates per match

0.57

1.71

allows per match

3.14

creates per match

FC Miami City

1.80

Caledonia

0.57

allows per match

FC Miami City

1.71

Caledonia

3.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Miami City+0.00on par

Caledonia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Miami City ↓

Caledonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

FC Miami City or draw

84%

FC Miami City or Caledonia

82%

Draw or Caledonia

34%

Winning margin

FC Miami City wins by 2+

44%

Caledonia wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FC Miami City 1+ goals

91%

FC Miami City 2+ goals

70%

FC Miami City 3+ goals

44%

Caledonia 1+ goals

68%

Caledonia 2+ goals

32%

Caledonia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Miami City (draw refunded)

80%

Caledonia (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Miami City at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.71 · 35 matches

Caledonia away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Miami City attack 1.80 + Caledonia defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.47

Caledonia attack 0.57 + FC Miami City defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

FC Miami City scores more

66%

level

18%

Caledonia scores more

16%

FC Miami City at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "FC Miami City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff