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FC Mariupol vs Zorya Luhansk — Premier League 2026

FC Mariupol
FC Mariupol
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
2/22/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

FC Mariupol28%
×Draw24%
Zorya Luhansk48%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Mariupol
1.22
Zorya Luhansk
1.66

Zorya Luhansk creates 36% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 103 away

creates per match

FC Mariupol
1.20
Zorya Luhansk
1.60

allows per match

FC Mariupol
1.71
Zorya Luhansk
1.24

finishing

FC Mariupol+0.00on par
Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Mariupol ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Mariupol or draw
52%
FC Mariupol or Zorya Luhansk
76%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
72%

Winning margin

FC Mariupol wins by 2+
12%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

FC Mariupol 1+ goals
70%
FC Mariupol 2+ goals
34%
FC Mariupol 3+ goals
12%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
81%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
49%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FC Mariupol (draw refunded)
37%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Mariupol at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.71 · 41 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Mariupol attack 1.20 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.60 + FC Mariupol defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Mariupol scores more
28%
level
24%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
48%

Zorya Luhansk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Mariupol vs Zorya Luhansk

Zorya Luhansk beat FC Mariupol 2-1 in Premier League on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka in Mariupol'.