FC Mariupol 2–1 Oleksandria: Result & Stats

FC Mariupol

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Oleksandria

V. Vakula 83'

R. Fomin 77' (pen)

A. Sitalo 90+5'

8/3/2019

Premier League · Round 2Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FC Mariupol38%

×Draw27%

Oleksandria36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC MariupolExpected goals in this matchOleksandria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.26

FC Mariupol

1.31

Oleksandria

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 101 away

1.33

creates per match

1.04

1.48

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

FC Mariupol

1.33

Oleksandria

1.04

allows per match

FC Mariupol

1.48

Oleksandria

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Mariupol+0.00on par

Oleksandria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Mariupol ↓

Oleksandria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FC Mariupol or draw

64%

FC Mariupol or Oleksandria

73%

Draw or Oleksandria

62%

Winning margin

FC Mariupol wins by 2+

17%

Oleksandria wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Mariupol 1+ goals

73%

FC Mariupol 2+ goals

38%

FC Mariupol 3+ goals

14%

Oleksandria 1+ goals

72%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

36%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Mariupol (draw refunded)

52%

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Mariupol at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.29 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Mariupol attack 1.33 + Oleksandria defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Oleksandria attack 1.04 + FC Mariupol defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Mariupol scores more

38%

level

27%

Oleksandria scores more

36%

FC Mariupol at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Mariupol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

D. Miroshnichenko

19'

V. Vakula

43'

D. Shastal← M. Tretyakov

45'

V. Babohlo

56'

D. Bezborodko

75'

D. Topalov← D. Myshnov

77'

R. FominPenalty

79'

K. Kovalets

80'

A. Sitalo← V. Luchkevych

81'

O. Kashchuk← R. Fomin

83'

V. Vakula

84'

J. Dawa← V. Churko

90+5'

A. Sitalo↳ D. Bezborodko

FC

Oleksandria

79

Pankiv

20

Paşayev

17

▼

11

13

4

27

6

44

10

▼

Tretyakov

9

A

12

13

29

4

2

25

11

▼

Churko

9

▼

Myshnov

71

Chekh

86

⚽

▼

Fomin

99

⚽

Vakula

Manager: O. Babych

75'▲D. Topalov←▼D. Myshnov

81'▲O. Kashchuk←▼R. Fomin

84'▲J. Dawa←▼V. Churko

FC Mariupol substitutes

7Topalov20Kashchuk5Dawa8Polehenko1Galchuk17Gorbunov19Tyshchenko

Manager: V. Sharan

43'▲D. Shastal←▼M. Tretyakov

80'▲A. Sitalo←▼V. Luchkevych

Oleksandria substitutes

23Shastal18Sitalo8Dovgyi7Protasov31Bilyk15Zaporozhan26Shendrik