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FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Magdeburg
FC Magdeburg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
11/12/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 13MDCC-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FC Magdeburg44%
×Draw26%
Hansa Rostock30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Magdeburg
1.48
Hansa Rostock
1.18

FC Magdeburg creates 25% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 51 away

creates per match

FC Magdeburg
1.38
Hansa Rostock
0.94

allows per match

FC Magdeburg
1.42
Hansa Rostock
1.57

finishing

FC Magdeburg+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Magdeburg ↓

Hansa Rostock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Magdeburg or draw
70%
FC Magdeburg or Hansa Rostock
74%
Draw or Hansa Rostock
56%

Winning margin

FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
22%
Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
77%
FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
43%
FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
19%
Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
69%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
33%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
59%
Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Magdeburg attack 1.38 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hansa Rostock attack 0.94 + FC Magdeburg defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Magdeburg scores more
44%
level
26%
Hansa Rostock scores more
30%

FC Magdeburg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: FC Magdeburg 1–2 Hansa Rostock

Hansa Rostock beat FC Magdeburg 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at MDCC-Arena in Magdeburg.