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FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Magdeburg
FC Magdeburg
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
4/29/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 30MDCC-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

FC Magdeburg33%
×Draw24%
Hamburger SV42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Magdeburg
1.38
Hamburger SV
1.58

Hamburger SV creates 14% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 119 away

creates per match

FC Magdeburg
1.38
Hamburger SV
1.74

allows per match

FC Magdeburg
1.42
Hamburger SV
1.39

finishing

FC Magdeburg+0.00on par
Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Magdeburg ↓

Hamburger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Magdeburg or draw
58%
FC Magdeburg or Hamburger SV
76%
Draw or Hamburger SV
67%

Winning margin

FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
15%
Hamburger SV wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
75%
FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
40%
FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
16%
Hamburger SV 1+ goals
79%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
47%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
44%
Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Magdeburg attack 1.38 + Hamburger SV defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Hamburger SV attack 1.74 + FC Magdeburg defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Magdeburg scores more
33%
level
24%
Hamburger SV scores more
42%

Hamburger SV at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV

FC Magdeburg beat Hamburger SV 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at MDCC-Arena in Magdeburg.