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FC Magdeburg vs FC Schalke 04 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Magdeburg
FC Magdeburg
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
2/24/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 23MDCC-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

FC Magdeburg37%
×Draw25%
FC Schalke 0437%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Magdeburg
1.42
FC Schalke 04
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 68 away

creates per match

FC Magdeburg
1.38
FC Schalke 04
1.41

allows per match

FC Magdeburg
1.42
FC Schalke 04
1.47

finishing

FC Magdeburg+0.00on par
FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Magdeburg ↓

FC Schalke 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Magdeburg or draw
63%
FC Magdeburg or FC Schalke 04
75%
Draw or FC Schalke 04
63%

Winning margin

FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
17%
FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
76%
FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
41%
FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
17%
FC Schalke 04 1+ goals
76%
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals
41%
FC Schalke 04 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
50%
FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Magdeburg attack 1.38 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.41 + FC Magdeburg defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Magdeburg scores more
37%
level
25%
FC Schalke 04 scores more
37%

FC Magdeburg at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Magdeburg vs FC Schalke 04

FC Magdeburg beat FC Schalke 04 3-0 in 2. Bundesliga on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at MDCC-Arena in Magdeburg.