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FC Luzern vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — Super League 2025

FC Luzern
FC Luzern
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
M. Meyer 88' (pen)
E. Mahmoud 15', 14'
5/21/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Relegation Round - 5swissporarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Luzern48%
×Draw20%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Luzern
2.34
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.89

FC Luzern creates 24% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Luzern
2.19
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.67

allows per match

FC Luzern
2.10
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.50

finishing

FC Luzern+0.00on par
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Luzern ↓

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

FC Luzern or draw
68%
FC Luzern or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
80%
Draw or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
52%

Winning margin

FC Luzern wins by 2+
29%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Luzern 1+ goals
90%
FC Luzern 2+ goals
67%
FC Luzern 3+ goals
41%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals
85%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals
56%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

FC Luzern (draw refunded)
60%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Luzern at home — creates 2.19, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Luzern attack 2.19 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.34

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.67 + FC Luzern defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Luzern scores more
48%
level
20%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more
32%

FC Luzern at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Luzern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
E. MahmoudStade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy · M
8.7

Match Events

14'
E. Mahmoud↳ L. Mulaj
15'
E. Mahmoud
46'
M. Meyer← L. Winkler
59'
D. Ulrich← L. Meyer
62'
Jakub Kadák
70'
L. Villiger← T. Klidje
70'
N. Haas← J. Kadák
71'
A. Ajdini← E. Mahmoud
71'
Ismaël Gharbi← L. Mulaj
77'
Lars Villiger
79'
K. Ademi← A. Grbic
81'
Ogou Akichi
85'
Lars VilligerPenalty confirmed
88'
M. MeyerPenalty
89'
Giovani Bamba← E. Akichi
89'
M. Abdallah← V. Damaşcan

Possession

51%FC

Shots

11FC

Pass accuracy

51%FC

Statistics

FCStade
Overview
51%Possession49%
11Total Shots10
7Corners2
10Fouls5
Shots
11Total Shots10
5On Target4
5Off Target4
1Blocked2
8Inside Box4
3Outside Box6
Passing
51%Possession49%
472Total Passes457
408Accurate Passes377
86%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls5
2Yellow Cards1
11Offsides2

Super League: FC Luzern 1–2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy beat FC Luzern 2-1 in Super League on May 21, 2024.

Goals: E. Mahmoud (14', 15'), M. Meyer (88' pen).

FC Luzern controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at swissporarena in Luzern.