FC Luzern 3–4 Servette FC: Result & Stats

FC Luzern

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Servette FC

A. Grbic 90+8' (pen), 89' (pen)

J. Kadák 78'

A. Ndoye 90'

D. Kutesa 73'

M. Stevanović 26' (pen), 4' (pen)

5/18/2025

Super League · Championship Round - 4swissporarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Luzern46%

×Draw21%

Servette FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC LuzernExpected goals in this matchServette FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.71

FC Luzern

2.04

Servette FC

1.71

FC Luzern creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

2.52

creates per match

1.63

1.78

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

FC Luzern

2.52

Servette FC

1.63

allows per match

FC Luzern

1.78

Servette FC

1.56

+0.68scores more than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

FC Luzern+0.68scores more

Servette FC+0.04on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Luzern ↓

Servette FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

FC Luzern or draw

67%

FC Luzern or Servette FC

79%

Draw or Servette FC

54%

Winning margin

FC Luzern wins by 2+

26%

Servette FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Luzern 1+ goals

87%

FC Luzern 2+ goals

60%

FC Luzern 3+ goals

33%

Servette FC 1+ goals

82%

Servette FC 2+ goals

51%

Servette FC 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

FC Luzern (draw refunded)

58%

Servette FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Luzern at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.78 · 5 matches

Servette FC away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Luzern attack 2.52 + Servette FC defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.04

Servette FC attack 1.63 + FC Luzern defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Luzern scores more

46%

level

21%

Servette FC scores more

33%

FC Luzern at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Luzern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Stevanović

Servette FC · M

9.2

Match Events

2'

Miroslav StevanovićPenalty confirmed

4'

M. StevanovićPenalty

25'

Keigo TsunemotoPenalty confirmed

26'

M. StevanovićPenalty

46'

T. Owusu← N. Beloko

46'

K. Spadanuda← L. Winkler

48'

Tiemoko Ouattara

54'

Keyan Varela← A. Antunes

57'

Ismajl Beka

61'

A. Grbic← L. Villiger

61'

S. Karweina← T. Klidje

61'

A. Ndoye← T. Ouattara

61'

D. Kutesa← J. Guillemenot

73'

D. Kutesa↳ M. Stevanović

74'

J. Kadák← D. Rrudhani

78'

J. Kadák↳ K. Spadanuda

80'

82'

84'

85'

87'

Stefan KneževićPenalty confirmed

89'

A. GrbicPenalty

90+7'

Andrejs CigaņiksPenalty confirmed

90+2'

L. Srdanovic← M. Stevanović

90'

A. Ndoye↳ T. Cognat

90+8'

A. GrbicPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCServette

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots21

2.18Expected Goals (xG)3.55

2Corners7

17Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots21

6On Target10

4Off Target8

2Blocked3

8Inside Box10

4Outside Box11

Passing

50%Possession50%

401Total Passes394

319Accurate Passes317

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0