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FC Luzern vs Servette FC — Super League 2018

FC Luzern
FC Luzern
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Servette FC
Servette FC
3/17/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28swissporarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

FC Luzern44%
×Draw24%
Servette FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Luzern
1.68
Servette FC
1.43

FC Luzern creates 17% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 129 away

creates per match

FC Luzern
1.69
Servette FC
1.40

allows per match

FC Luzern
1.46
Servette FC
1.67

finishing

FC Luzern+0.00on par
Servette FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Luzern ↓

Servette FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Luzern or draw
67%
FC Luzern or Servette FC
76%
Draw or Servette FC
56%

Winning margin

FC Luzern wins by 2+
23%
Servette FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Luzern 1+ goals
81%
FC Luzern 2+ goals
50%
FC Luzern 3+ goals
24%
Servette FC 1+ goals
76%
Servette FC 2+ goals
42%
Servette FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Luzern (draw refunded)
57%
Servette FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Luzern at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.46 · 148 matches

Servette FC away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.67 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Luzern attack 1.69 + Servette FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.68

Servette FC attack 1.40 + FC Luzern defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Luzern scores more
44%
level
24%
Servette FC scores more
33%

FC Luzern at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Luzern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: FC Luzern 2–2 Servette FC

FC Luzern and Servette FC drew 2-2 in Super League on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at swissporarena in Luzern.