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FC Luzern vs FC ST. Gallen — Super League 2018

FC Luzern
FC Luzern
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
4/3/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 30swissporarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

FC Luzern41%
×Draw24%
FC ST. Gallen35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Luzern
1.61
FC ST. Gallen
1.46

FC Luzern creates 10% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 148 away

creates per match

FC Luzern
1.69
FC ST. Gallen
1.45

allows per match

FC Luzern
1.46
FC ST. Gallen
1.53

finishing

FC Luzern+0.00on par
FC ST. Gallen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Luzern ↓

FC ST. Gallen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Luzern or draw
65%
FC Luzern or FC ST. Gallen
76%
Draw or FC ST. Gallen
59%

Winning margin

FC Luzern wins by 2+
21%
FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Luzern 1+ goals
80%
FC Luzern 2+ goals
48%
FC Luzern 3+ goals
22%
FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
77%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
43%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Luzern (draw refunded)
54%
FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Luzern at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.46 · 148 matches

FC ST. Gallen away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.53 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Luzern attack 1.69 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.61

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.45 + FC Luzern defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Luzern scores more
41%
level
24%
FC ST. Gallen scores more
35%

FC Luzern at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Luzern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: FC Luzern 1–1 FC ST. Gallen

FC Luzern and FC ST. Gallen drew 1-1 in Super League on April 3, 2025.

The match was played at swissporarena in Luzern.