FC Luzern 0–2 FC Lugano: Result & Stats

FC Luzern

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FC Lugano

5/4/2025

Super League · Championship Round - 1swissporarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

FC Luzern41%

×Draw24%

FC Lugano35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC LuzernExpected goals in this matchFC Lugano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.42

FC Luzern

1.56

FC Lugano

1.42

FC Luzern creates 10% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 147 away

1.69

creates per match

1.39

1.46

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

FC Luzern

1.69

FC Lugano

1.39

allows per match

FC Luzern

1.46

FC Lugano

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Luzern+0.00on par

FC Lugano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Luzern ↓

FC Lugano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FC Luzern or draw

65%

FC Luzern or FC Lugano

76%

Draw or FC Lugano

59%

Winning margin

FC Luzern wins by 2+

20%

FC Lugano wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Luzern 1+ goals

79%

FC Luzern 2+ goals

46%

FC Luzern 3+ goals

21%

FC Lugano 1+ goals

76%

FC Lugano 2+ goals

41%

FC Lugano 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Luzern (draw refunded)

54%

FC Lugano (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Luzern at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.46 · 148 matches

FC Lugano away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.43 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Luzern attack 1.69 + FC Lugano defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.56

FC Lugano attack 1.39 + FC Luzern defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Luzern scores more

41%

level

24%

FC Lugano scores more

35%

FC Luzern at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Luzern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff