FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 — Super League 2018
FC Basel 1893 score first in only 24% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 147+ matches
FC Luzern39%
FC Basel 189337%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 148 home / 147 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over61
- Under39
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes63
- No37
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC Luzern ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC Luzern at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.46 · 148 matches
FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 147 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC Luzern attack 1.69 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.60
FC Basel 1893 attack 1.65 + FC Luzern defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.55
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
FC Luzern at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "FC Luzern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- 47% of FC Basel 1893’s goals come after the 75th minute
- Style contrast — FC Luzern play Attack-heavy, FC Basel 1893 Defensively solid
- Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Contrasting stylesHead-to-head
10 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FC Luzern host FC Basel 1893 on Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 14:30. The match is part of the Super League 2018/2019 season.
FC Luzern face FC Basel 1893 (Super League)
Super League returns with FC Luzern hosting FC Basel 1893. Match starts September 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
FC Luzern host FC Basel 1893 at Swissporarena.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.