Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 — Super League 2018

FC Luzern
FC Luzern
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
2/22/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26Swissporarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

FC Luzern39%
×Draw24%
FC Basel 189337%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Luzern
1.60
FC Basel 1893
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 148 home / 147 away

creates per match

FC Luzern
1.69
FC Basel 1893
1.65

allows per match

FC Luzern
1.46
FC Basel 1893
1.52

finishing

FC Luzern+0.00on par
FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Luzern ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Luzern or draw
63%
FC Luzern or FC Basel 1893
76%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
61%

Winning margin

FC Luzern wins by 2+
19%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Luzern 1+ goals
80%
FC Luzern 2+ goals
47%
FC Luzern 3+ goals
22%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
79%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
46%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

FC Luzern (draw refunded)
51%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Luzern at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.46 · 148 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Luzern attack 1.69 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.60

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.65 + FC Luzern defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Luzern scores more
39%
level
24%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
37%

FC Luzern at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Luzern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893

FC Luzern beat FC Basel 1893 4-2 in Super League on February 22, 2026.

The match was played at Swissporarena in Luzern.