FC Luzern 3–3 Dynamo Kyiv: Result & Stats

FC Luzern

3 – 3

Dynamo Kyiv

7/7/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3swissporarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Luzern35%

×Draw21%

Dynamo Kyiv44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC LuzernExpected goals in this matchDynamo Kyiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

2.12

FC Luzern

1.88

Dynamo Kyiv

2.12

Dynamo Kyiv creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

1.93

creates per match

2.17

2.07

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

FC Luzern

1.93

Dynamo Kyiv

2.17

allows per match

FC Luzern

2.07

Dynamo Kyiv

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Luzern+0.00on par

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Luzern ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

FC Luzern or draw

56%

FC Luzern or Dynamo Kyiv

79%

Draw or Dynamo Kyiv

65%

Winning margin

FC Luzern wins by 2+

18%

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

FC Luzern 1+ goals

85%

FC Luzern 2+ goals

56%

FC Luzern 3+ goals

29%

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

88%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

62%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

FC Luzern (draw refunded)

44%

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Luzern at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Luzern attack 1.93 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.88

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.17 + FC Luzern defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Luzern scores more

35%

level

21%

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

44%

Dynamo Kyiv at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff