Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys — Super League 2018

FC Luzern
FC Luzern
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
4/13/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 32swissporarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

FC Luzern37%
×Draw24%
BSC Young Boys39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Luzern
1.53
BSC Young Boys
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 148 home / 147 away

creates per match

FC Luzern
1.69
BSC Young Boys
1.73

allows per match

FC Luzern
1.46
BSC Young Boys
1.38

finishing

FC Luzern+0.00on par
BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Luzern ↓

BSC Young Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Luzern or draw
61%
FC Luzern or BSC Young Boys
76%
Draw or BSC Young Boys
63%

Winning margin

FC Luzern wins by 2+
18%
BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FC Luzern 1+ goals
78%
FC Luzern 2+ goals
45%
FC Luzern 3+ goals
20%
BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
80%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
47%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Luzern (draw refunded)
48%
BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Luzern at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.46 · 148 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.38 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Luzern attack 1.69 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.53

BSC Young Boys attack 1.73 + FC Luzern defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Luzern scores more
37%
level
24%
BSC Young Boys scores more
39%

BSC Young Boys at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys

FC Luzern beat BSC Young Boys 5-0 in Super League on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at swissporarena in Luzern.