FC Luzern 2–3 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

FC Luzern

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

BSC Young Boys

8/12/2018

Super League · Round 4Swissporarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

FC Luzern47%

×Draw24%

BSC Young Boys30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC LuzernExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.33

FC Luzern

1.72

BSC Young Boys

1.33

FC Luzern creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

1.95

creates per match

1.26

1.41

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

FC Luzern

1.95

BSC Young Boys

1.26

allows per match

FC Luzern

1.41

BSC Young Boys

1.49

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

FC Luzern+0.14scores more

BSC Young Boys+0.34scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Luzern ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Luzern or draw

70%

FC Luzern or BSC Young Boys

76%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

53%

Winning margin

FC Luzern wins by 2+

25%

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Luzern 1+ goals

82%

FC Luzern 2+ goals

51%

FC Luzern 3+ goals

25%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

74%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

38%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Luzern (draw refunded)

61%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Luzern at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.49 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Luzern attack 1.95 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.72

BSC Young Boys attack 1.26 + FC Luzern defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Luzern scores more

47%

level

24%

BSC Young Boys scores more

30%

FC Luzern at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Luzern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff