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FC Lugano vs Yverdon Sport — Super League 2018

FC Lugano
FC Lugano
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Yverdon Sport
Yverdon Sport
3/16/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28Stadio Comunale di Cornaredo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Lugano50%
×Draw24%
Yverdon Sport26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lugano
1.71
Yverdon Sport
1.15

FC Lugano creates 49% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Lugano
1.82
Yverdon Sport
1.23

allows per match

FC Lugano
1.06
Yverdon Sport
1.60

finishing

FC Lugano+0.18scores more
Yverdon Sport-0.23scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lugano ↓

Yverdon Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Lugano or draw
74%
FC Lugano or Yverdon Sport
76%
Draw or Yverdon Sport
50%

Winning margin

FC Lugano wins by 2+
27%
Yverdon Sport wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Lugano 1+ goals
82%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
51%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
24%
Yverdon Sport 1+ goals
68%
Yverdon Sport 2+ goals
32%
Yverdon Sport 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Lugano (draw refunded)
66%
Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lugano at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.06 · 6 matches

Yverdon Sport away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.60 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lugano attack 1.82 + Yverdon Sport defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.71

Yverdon Sport attack 1.23 + FC Lugano defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Lugano scores more
50%
level
24%
Yverdon Sport scores more
26%

FC Lugano at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Lugano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: FC Lugano 2–0 Yverdon Sport

FC Lugano beat Yverdon Sport 2-0 in Super League on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Cornaredo in Lugano.