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FC Lugano vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — Super League 2018

FC Lugano
FC Lugano
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1/21/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Stadio Comunale di Cornaredo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FC Lugano49%
×Draw24%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lugano
1.68
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.19

FC Lugano creates 41% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 20 away

creates per match

FC Lugano
1.51
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.15

allows per match

FC Lugano
1.22
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.85

finishing

FC Lugano+0.00on par
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lugano ↓

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Lugano or draw
73%
FC Lugano or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
76%
Draw or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
51%

Winning margin

FC Lugano wins by 2+
26%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Lugano 1+ goals
81%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
50%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
24%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals
70%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals
33%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Lugano (draw refunded)
64%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lugano at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.22 · 147 matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lugano attack 1.51 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.68

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.15 + FC Lugano defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Lugano scores more
49%
level
24%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more
27%

FC Lugano at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Lugano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Lugano vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy beat FC Lugano 3-2 in Super League on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Cornaredo in Lugano.