FC Lugano 2–4 Plzen: Result & Stats

FC Lugano

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Plzen

1/9/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FC Lugano19%

×Draw22%

Plzen59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC LuganoExpected goals in this matchPlzen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.96

FC Lugano

1.01

Plzen

1.96

Plzen creates 94% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

1.40

creates per match

2.38

1.53

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

FC Lugano

1.40

Plzen

2.38

allows per match

FC Lugano

1.53

Plzen

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Lugano+0.00on par

Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lugano ↓

Plzen →

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FC Lugano or draw

41%

FC Lugano or Plzen

78%

Draw or Plzen

81%

Winning margin

FC Lugano wins by 2+

Plzen wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

FC Lugano 1+ goals

64%

FC Lugano 2+ goals

27%

FC Lugano 3+ goals

Plzen 1+ goals

86%

Plzen 2+ goals

58%

Plzen 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

FC Lugano (draw refunded)

24%

Plzen (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Lugano at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Plzen away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Lugano attack 1.40 + Plzen defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.01

Plzen attack 2.38 + FC Lugano defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

FC Lugano scores more

19%

level

22%

Plzen scores more

59%

Plzen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff