Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Lugano vs Grasshoppers — Super League 2025

FC Lugano
FC Lugano
Preview
16:00
Grasshoppers
Grasshoppers
11/21/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14AIL Arena
53%
FC Lugano
model favours
53%23%24%

FC Lugano are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FC Lugano53%
×Draw23%
Grasshoppers24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lugano
1.84
Grasshoppers
1.18

FC Lugano creates 56% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 25 away

creates per match

FC Lugano
1.77
Grasshoppers
1.08

allows per match

FC Lugano
1.27
Grasshoppers
1.92

finishing

FC Lugano+0.00on par
Grasshoppers+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lugano ↓

Grasshoppers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Lugano or draw
76%
FC Lugano or Grasshoppers
77%
Draw or Grasshoppers
47%

Winning margin

FC Lugano wins by 2+
30%
Grasshoppers wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Lugano 1+ goals
84%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
55%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
28%
Grasshoppers 1+ goals
69%
Grasshoppers 2+ goals
33%
Grasshoppers 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Lugano (draw refunded)
68%
Grasshoppers (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lugano at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

Grasshoppers away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lugano attack 1.77 + Grasshoppers defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.84

Grasshoppers attack 1.08 + FC Lugano defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Lugano scores more
53%
level
23%
Grasshoppers scores more
24%

FC Lugano at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Lugano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Grasshoppers score first in only 17% of matches
  • FC Lugano have scored in 11 games running
  • Style contrast — FC Lugano play Defensively solid, Grasshoppers Direct / counter-attacking
  • FC Lugano outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
FC Lugano
Defensively solid
Grasshoppers
Direct / counter-attacking
52%Possession45%
84%Pass accuracyBiggest gap71%
12.0Shots11.0
1.11xG1.21
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FC LuganoGrasshoppers

Head-to-head

3 previous meetings

1
FC Lugano
1
Draws
1
Grasshoppers
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 67%
0–11–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Lugano
WWDWW
Grasshoppers
LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Lugano face Grasshoppers (Super League)

Super League returns with FC Lugano hosting Grasshoppers. Match starts November 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Lugano host Grasshoppers at AIL Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.