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FC Lugano vs FC Schaffhausen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Lugano
FC Lugano
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Schaffhausen
FC Schaffhausen
1/12/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadio Comunale di Cornaredo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FC Lugano46%
×Draw21%
FC Schaffhausen33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lugano
2.04
FC Schaffhausen
1.70

FC Lugano creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

FC Lugano
1.40
FC Schaffhausen
1.87

allows per match

FC Lugano
1.53
FC Schaffhausen
2.67

finishing

FC Lugano+0.00on par
FC Schaffhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lugano ↓

FC Schaffhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

FC Lugano or draw
67%
FC Lugano or FC Schaffhausen
79%
Draw or FC Schaffhausen
54%

Winning margin

FC Lugano wins by 2+
26%
FC Schaffhausen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Lugano 1+ goals
87%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
60%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
33%
FC Schaffhausen 1+ goals
82%
FC Schaffhausen 2+ goals
51%
FC Schaffhausen 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

FC Lugano (draw refunded)
58%
FC Schaffhausen (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lugano at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

FC Schaffhausen away — creates 1.87, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lugano attack 1.40 + FC Schaffhausen defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.04

FC Schaffhausen attack 1.87 + FC Lugano defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Lugano scores more
46%
level
21%
FC Schaffhausen scores more
33%

FC Lugano at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Lugano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Lugano vs FC Schaffhausen

FC Lugano beat FC Schaffhausen 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Cornaredo in Lugano.