FC Lok Stendal 3–0 Strausberg: Result & Stats

FC Lok Stendal

FT

3 – 0

Strausberg

9/6/2020

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 4Stadion am Hölzchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Lok Stendal38%

×Draw24%

Strausberg38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Lok StendalExpected goals in this matchStrausberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

FC Lok Stendal

1.55

Strausberg

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 4 away

0.85

creates per match

0.50

2.60

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

FC Lok Stendal

0.85

Strausberg

0.50

allows per match

FC Lok Stendal

2.60

Strausberg

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Lok Stendal+0.00on par

Strausberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lok Stendal ↓

Strausberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Lok Stendal or draw

62%

FC Lok Stendal or Strausberg

76%

Draw or Strausberg

62%

Winning margin

FC Lok Stendal wins by 2+

19%

Strausberg wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FC Lok Stendal 1+ goals

79%

FC Lok Stendal 2+ goals

46%

FC Lok Stendal 3+ goals

20%

Strausberg 1+ goals

79%

Strausberg 2+ goals

46%

Strausberg 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

FC Lok Stendal (draw refunded)

50%

Strausberg (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lok Stendal at home — creates 0.85, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

Strausberg away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lok Stendal attack 0.85 + Strausberg defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.55

Strausberg attack 0.50 + FC Lok Stendal defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Lok Stendal scores more

38%

level

24%

Strausberg scores more

38%

FC Lok Stendal at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Lok Stendal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff