FC Lok Stendal 2–0 BSC Süd 05: Result & Stats

FC Lok Stendal

FT

2 – 0

BSC Süd 05

8/18/2021

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 3Stadion am Hölzchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FC Lok Stendal32%

×Draw24%

BSC Süd 0544%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Lok StendalExpected goals in this matchBSC Süd 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.68

FC Lok Stendal

1.40

BSC Süd 05

1.68

BSC Süd 05 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

0.85

creates per match

0.76

2.60

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

FC Lok Stendal

0.85

BSC Süd 05

0.76

allows per match

FC Lok Stendal

2.60

BSC Süd 05

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Lok Stendal+0.00on par

BSC Süd 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lok Stendal ↓

BSC Süd 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Lok Stendal or draw

56%

FC Lok Stendal or BSC Süd 05

76%

Draw or BSC Süd 05

68%

Winning margin

FC Lok Stendal wins by 2+

14%

BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

FC Lok Stendal 1+ goals

75%

FC Lok Stendal 2+ goals

41%

FC Lok Stendal 3+ goals

17%

BSC Süd 05 1+ goals

81%

BSC Süd 05 2+ goals

50%

BSC Süd 05 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

FC Lok Stendal (draw refunded)

42%

BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lok Stendal at home — creates 0.85, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

BSC Süd 05 away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lok Stendal attack 0.85 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.40

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.76 + FC Lok Stendal defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Lok Stendal scores more

32%

level

24%

BSC Süd 05 scores more

44%

BSC Süd 05 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "BSC Süd 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff