Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Lisse vs SVV Scheveningen — Tweede Divisie 2019

FC Lisse
FC Lisse
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
SVV Scheveningen
SVV Scheveningen
5/4/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 31Sportpark Ter Specke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FC Lisse36%
×Draw25%
SVV Scheveningen39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lisse
1.38
SVV Scheveningen
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 83 away

creates per match

FC Lisse
1.23
SVV Scheveningen
1.12

allows per match

FC Lisse
1.77
SVV Scheveningen
1.52

finishing

FC Lisse+0.00on par
SVV Scheveningen+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lisse ↓

SVV Scheveningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Lisse or draw
61%
FC Lisse or SVV Scheveningen
75%
Draw or SVV Scheveningen
64%

Winning margin

FC Lisse wins by 2+
16%
SVV Scheveningen wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Lisse 1+ goals
75%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
40%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
16%
SVV Scheveningen 1+ goals
77%
SVV Scheveningen 2+ goals
42%
SVV Scheveningen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Lisse (draw refunded)
48%
SVV Scheveningen (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lisse at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

SVV Scheveningen away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lisse attack 1.23 + SVV Scheveningen defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

SVV Scheveningen attack 1.12 + FC Lisse defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Lisse scores more
36%
level
25%
SVV Scheveningen scores more
39%

SVV Scheveningen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SVV Scheveningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Lisse vs SVV Scheveningen

SVV Scheveningen beat FC Lisse 2-0 in Tweede Divisie on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Ter Specke in Lisse.