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FC Lisse vs Smitshoek — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

FC Lisse
FC Lisse
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Smitshoek
Smitshoek
9/14/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 5Sportpark Ter Specke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FC Lisse63%
×Draw18%
Smitshoek19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lisse
2.48
Smitshoek
1.30

FC Lisse creates 91% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

FC Lisse
1.91
Smitshoek
1.76

allows per match

FC Lisse
0.85
Smitshoek
3.06

finishing

FC Lisse+0.00on par
Smitshoek+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lisse ↓

Smitshoek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

FC Lisse or draw
81%
FC Lisse or Smitshoek
82%
Draw or Smitshoek
37%

Winning margin

FC Lisse wins by 2+
41%
Smitshoek wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Lisse 1+ goals
92%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
70%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
44%
Smitshoek 1+ goals
73%
Smitshoek 2+ goals
37%
Smitshoek 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Lisse (draw refunded)
77%
Smitshoek (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lisse at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Smitshoek away — creates 1.76, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lisse attack 1.91 + Smitshoek defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.48

Smitshoek attack 1.76 + FC Lisse defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FC Lisse scores more
63%
level
18%
Smitshoek scores more
19%

FC Lisse at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FC Lisse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: FC Lisse 2–1 Smitshoek

FC Lisse beat Smitshoek 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Ter Specke in Lisse.