FC Lisse 4–1 ONS Sneek: Result & Stats

FC Lisse

FT

4 – 1

ONS Sneek

10/12/2019

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 8Sportpark Ter Specke (Lisse)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Lisse76%

×Draw14%

ONS Sneek10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC LisseExpected goals in this matchONS Sneek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.02

1.06

FC Lisse

3.02

ONS Sneek

1.06

FC Lisse creates 185% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 12 away

2.37

creates per match

1.00

1.13

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

FC Lisse

2.37

ONS Sneek

1.00

allows per match

FC Lisse

1.13

ONS Sneek

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Lisse+0.00on par

ONS Sneek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lisse ↓

ONS Sneek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

FC Lisse or draw

90%

FC Lisse or ONS Sneek

86%

Draw or ONS Sneek

24%

Winning margin

FC Lisse wins by 2+

56%

ONS Sneek wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

FC Lisse 1+ goals

95%

FC Lisse 2+ goals

80%

FC Lisse 3+ goals

57%

ONS Sneek 1+ goals

65%

ONS Sneek 2+ goals

29%

ONS Sneek 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Lisse (draw refunded)

88%

ONS Sneek (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lisse at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

ONS Sneek away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lisse attack 2.37 + ONS Sneek defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.02

ONS Sneek attack 1.00 + FC Lisse defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

FC Lisse scores more

76%

level

14%

ONS Sneek scores more

10%

FC Lisse at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "FC Lisse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff