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FC Lisse vs OJC Rosmalen — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

FC Lisse
FC Lisse
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
OJC Rosmalen
OJC Rosmalen
9/28/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 7Sportpark Ter Specke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FC Lisse54%
×Draw23%
OJC Rosmalen23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lisse
1.88
OJC Rosmalen
1.15

FC Lisse creates 63% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

FC Lisse
1.91
OJC Rosmalen
1.45

allows per match

FC Lisse
0.85
OJC Rosmalen
1.84

finishing

FC Lisse+0.00on par
OJC Rosmalen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lisse ↓

OJC Rosmalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Lisse or draw
77%
FC Lisse or OJC Rosmalen
77%
Draw or OJC Rosmalen
46%

Winning margin

FC Lisse wins by 2+
31%
OJC Rosmalen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Lisse 1+ goals
85%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
56%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
29%
OJC Rosmalen 1+ goals
68%
OJC Rosmalen 2+ goals
32%
OJC Rosmalen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Lisse (draw refunded)
70%
OJC Rosmalen (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lisse at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

OJC Rosmalen away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lisse attack 1.91 + OJC Rosmalen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.88

OJC Rosmalen attack 1.45 + FC Lisse defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Lisse scores more
54%
level
23%
OJC Rosmalen scores more
23%

FC Lisse at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Lisse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Lisse vs OJC Rosmalen

FC Lisse beat OJC Rosmalen 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Ter Specke in Lisse.