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FC Lisse vs OFC Oostzaan — Tweede Divisie 2019

FC Lisse
FC Lisse
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
10/1/2022Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 9Sportpark Ter Specke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FC Lisse57%
×Draw21%
OFC Oostzaan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lisse
2.12
OFC Oostzaan
1.24

FC Lisse creates 71% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

creates per match

FC Lisse
1.23
OFC Oostzaan
0.71

allows per match

FC Lisse
1.77
OFC Oostzaan
3.00

finishing

FC Lisse+0.00on par
OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lisse ↓

OFC Oostzaan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FC Lisse or draw
78%
FC Lisse or OFC Oostzaan
79%
Draw or OFC Oostzaan
43%

Winning margin

FC Lisse wins by 2+
35%
OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Lisse 1+ goals
88%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
62%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
35%
OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
71%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
35%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Lisse (draw refunded)
72%
OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lisse at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lisse attack 1.23 + OFC Oostzaan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

OFC Oostzaan attack 0.71 + FC Lisse defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FC Lisse scores more
57%
level
21%
OFC Oostzaan scores more
22%

FC Lisse at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FC Lisse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Lisse vs OFC Oostzaan

FC Lisse beat OFC Oostzaan 2-1 in Tweede Divisie on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Ter Specke in Lisse.