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FC Lisse vs Noordwijk — Tweede Divisie 2019

FC Lisse
FC Lisse
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Noordwijk
Noordwijk
2/25/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 23Sportpark Ter Specke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FC Lisse34%
×Draw24%
Noordwijk42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lisse
1.44
Noordwijk
1.61

Noordwijk creates 12% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 85 away

creates per match

FC Lisse
1.23
Noordwijk
1.46

allows per match

FC Lisse
1.77
Noordwijk
1.65

finishing

FC Lisse+0.00on par
Noordwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lisse ↓

Noordwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Lisse or draw
58%
FC Lisse or Noordwijk
76%
Draw or Noordwijk
66%

Winning margin

FC Lisse wins by 2+
16%
Noordwijk wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FC Lisse 1+ goals
76%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
42%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
18%
Noordwijk 1+ goals
80%
Noordwijk 2+ goals
48%
Noordwijk 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Lisse (draw refunded)
45%
Noordwijk (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lisse at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

Noordwijk away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lisse attack 1.23 + Noordwijk defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Noordwijk attack 1.46 + FC Lisse defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Lisse scores more
34%
level
24%
Noordwijk scores more
42%

Noordwijk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Noordwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: FC Lisse 0–0 Noordwijk

FC Lisse and Noordwijk drew 0-0 in Tweede Divisie on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Ter Specke in Lisse.