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FC Lisse vs GVVV Veenendaal — Tweede Divisie 2019

FC Lisse
FC Lisse
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
GVVV Veenendaal
GVVV Veenendaal
11/4/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 11Sportpark Ter Specke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FC Lisse38%
×Draw24%
GVVV Veenendaal38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lisse
1.54
GVVV Veenendaal
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 86 away

creates per match

FC Lisse
1.23
GVVV Veenendaal
1.36

allows per match

FC Lisse
1.77
GVVV Veenendaal
1.85

finishing

FC Lisse+0.00on par
GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lisse ↓

GVVV Veenendaal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Lisse or draw
62%
FC Lisse or GVVV Veenendaal
76%
Draw or GVVV Veenendaal
62%

Winning margin

FC Lisse wins by 2+
18%
GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Lisse 1+ goals
79%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
45%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
20%
GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals
79%
GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals
46%
GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Lisse (draw refunded)
49%
GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lisse at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

GVVV Veenendaal away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.85 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lisse attack 1.23 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.54

GVVV Veenendaal attack 1.36 + FC Lisse defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Lisse scores more
38%
level
24%
GVVV Veenendaal scores more
38%

FC Lisse at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Lisse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Lisse vs GVVV Veenendaal

FC Lisse and GVVV Veenendaal drew 2-2 in Tweede Divisie on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Ter Specke in Lisse.