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FC Lisse vs AFC Amsterdam — Tweede Divisie 2019

FC Lisse
FC Lisse
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Amsterdam
AFC Amsterdam
4/1/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 27Sportpark Ter Specke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FC Lisse29%
×Draw24%
AFC Amsterdam47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lisse
1.28
AFC Amsterdam
1.71

AFC Amsterdam creates 34% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 98 away

creates per match

FC Lisse
1.23
AFC Amsterdam
1.64

allows per match

FC Lisse
1.77
AFC Amsterdam
1.33

finishing

FC Lisse+0.00on par
AFC Amsterdam+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lisse ↓

AFC Amsterdam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Lisse or draw
53%
FC Lisse or AFC Amsterdam
76%
Draw or AFC Amsterdam
71%

Winning margin

FC Lisse wins by 2+
12%
AFC Amsterdam wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

FC Lisse 1+ goals
72%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
37%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
14%
AFC Amsterdam 1+ goals
82%
AFC Amsterdam 2+ goals
51%
AFC Amsterdam 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

FC Lisse (draw refunded)
38%
AFC Amsterdam (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lisse at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

AFC Amsterdam away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.33 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lisse attack 1.23 + AFC Amsterdam defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.28

AFC Amsterdam attack 1.64 + FC Lisse defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Lisse scores more
29%
level
24%
AFC Amsterdam scores more
47%

AFC Amsterdam at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AFC Amsterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: FC Lisse 0–0 AFC Amsterdam

FC Lisse and AFC Amsterdam drew 0-0 in Tweede Divisie on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Ter Specke in Lisse.