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FC Liefering vs Monaco — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Liefering
FC Liefering
CANC
11:00
Monaco
Monaco
1/30/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Hotel Parador de El Saler

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FC Liefering40%
×Draw25%
Monaco35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Liefering
1.52
Monaco
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

FC Liefering
2.25
Monaco
1.80

allows per match

FC Liefering
1.00
Monaco
0.80

finishing

FC Liefering+0.00on par
Monaco+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Liefering ↓

Monaco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Liefering or draw
65%
FC Liefering or Monaco
75%
Draw or Monaco
60%

Winning margin

FC Liefering wins by 2+
20%
Monaco wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Liefering 1+ goals
78%
FC Liefering 2+ goals
45%
FC Liefering 3+ goals
20%
Monaco 1+ goals
75%
Monaco 2+ goals
41%
Monaco 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Liefering (draw refunded)
54%
Monaco (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Liefering at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Monaco away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Liefering attack 2.25 + Monaco defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Monaco attack 1.80 + FC Liefering defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Liefering scores more
40%
level
25%
Monaco scores more
35%

FC Liefering at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Liefering will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Liefering host Monaco

January 30, 2024: FC Liefering take on Monaco in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Liefering host Monaco at Hotel Parador de El Saler.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.