FC Liefering 1–1 Augsburg II: Result & Stats

FC Liefering

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Augsburg II

1/20/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Akademie Liefering - Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FC Liefering47%

×Draw22%

Augsburg II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC LieferingExpected goals in this matchAugsburg II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.50

FC Liefering

1.88

Augsburg II

1.50

FC Liefering creates 25% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

2.25

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

FC Liefering

2.25

Augsburg II

2.00

allows per match

FC Liefering

1.00

Augsburg II

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Liefering+0.00on par

Augsburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Liefering ↓

Augsburg II →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

FC Liefering or draw

69%

FC Liefering or Augsburg II

78%

Draw or Augsburg II

53%

Winning margin

FC Liefering wins by 2+

26%

Augsburg II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Liefering 1+ goals

85%

FC Liefering 2+ goals

56%

FC Liefering 3+ goals

29%

Augsburg II 1+ goals

78%

Augsburg II 2+ goals

44%

Augsburg II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FC Liefering (draw refunded)

60%

Augsburg II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Liefering at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Augsburg II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Liefering attack 2.25 + Augsburg II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Augsburg II attack 2.00 + FC Liefering defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Liefering scores more

47%

level

22%

Augsburg II scores more

31%

FC Liefering at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Liefering will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff