FC Levante Badalona W 1–1 Espanyol W

FC Levante Badalona W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Espanyol W

R. Elloh 86'

Iara 80'

11/23/2024

Primera División Femenina · Round 11Estadi Municipal de Badalona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

FC Levante Badalona W42%

×Draw26%

Espanyol W32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Levante Badalona WExpected goals in this matchEspanyol W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.18

FC Levante Badalona W

1.40

Espanyol W

1.18

FC Levante Badalona W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 75 away

1.02

creates per match

0.80

1.55

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

FC Levante Badalona W

1.02

Espanyol W

0.80

allows per match

FC Levante Badalona W

1.55

Espanyol W

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Levante Badalona W+0.00on par

Espanyol W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Levante Badalona W ↓

Espanyol W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FC Levante Badalona W or draw

68%

FC Levante Badalona W or Espanyol W

74%

Draw or Espanyol W

58%

Winning margin

FC Levante Badalona W wins by 2+

20%

Espanyol W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Levante Badalona W 1+ goals

75%

FC Levante Badalona W 2+ goals

41%

FC Levante Badalona W 3+ goals

17%

Espanyol W 1+ goals

69%

Espanyol W 2+ goals

33%

Espanyol W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Levante Badalona W (draw refunded)

57%

Espanyol W (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Levante Badalona W at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.55 · 60 matches

Espanyol W away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.77 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Levante Badalona W attack 1.02 + Espanyol W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.40

Espanyol W attack 0.80 + FC Levante Badalona W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Levante Badalona W scores more

42%

level

26%

Espanyol W scores more

32%

FC Levante Badalona W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Levante Badalona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Carla Juliá← Macarena Portales

51'

A. Mbadi

52'

A. Aparicio

58'

M. Llompart Pons

59'

G. Chebbak← Melanie Serrano

59'

Aina Durán← A. Mbadi

67'

Amaia Martínez← D. Caracas

67'

Lucía Vallejo← Arola Aparicio

70'

L. Balleste

73'

Cristina Baudet← E. Banini

74'

I. Uribe

76'

Mar Segarra← R. Salvador

80'

Iara↳ Mar Torrás

83'

R. Elloh← Laura Martínez

86'

R. Elloh↳ G. Chebbak

90+10'

A. Martinez

FC

Espanyol

1

▼

Salvador

16

Perea

22

▼

Caracas

23

▼

14

21

17

6

A

Torrás

15

▼

Mbadi

10

Chamorro

11

⚽

Iara

1

Valenzuel

5

▼

3

16

4

10

▼

Banini

6

Llompart

8

▼

Martínez

9

▼

Portales

11

Julve

7

Uribe

Manager: Ferrán Cabello

46'▲Carla Juliá←▼Macarena Portales

59'▲G. Chebbak←▼Melanie Serrano

73'▲Cristina Baudet←▼E. Banini

83'▲R. Elloh←▼Laura Martínez

FC Levante Badalona W substitutes

30Juliá17Chebbak21Baudet19Elloh22Nicoli40Carmona25Coronado14Mora15Young-Ju

Manager: Sara Monforte

59'▲Aina Durán←▼A. Mbadi

67'▲Amaia Martínez←▼D. Caracas

67'▲Lucía Vallejo←▼Arola Aparicio

76'▲Mar Segarra←▼R. Salvador

Espanyol W substitutes

30Durán4Martínez5Vallejo13Segarra9Hernández33Estrella19Álamo2Botero7Pablos8Montilla