FC Levante Badalona W vs Deportivo Alavés W

FC Levante Badalona W

Preview

16:00

Deportivo Alavés W

1/10/2027

Primera División Femenina · Round 15Estadi Municipal de Badalona

54%

FC Levante Badalona W

model favours

54%22%24%

1–1

likely score

62%

over 2.5 goals

61%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

FC Levante Badalona W54%

×Draw22%

Deportivo Alavés W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Levante Badalona WExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Alavés W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.24

FC Levante Badalona W

1.95

Deportivo Alavés W

1.24

FC Levante Badalona W creates 57% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

1.02

creates per match

0.93

1.55

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

FC Levante Badalona W

1.02

Deportivo Alavés W

0.93

allows per match

FC Levante Badalona W

1.55

Deportivo Alavés W

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Levante Badalona W+0.00on par

Deportivo Alavés W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Levante Badalona W ↓

Deportivo Alavés W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FC Levante Badalona W or draw

76%

FC Levante Badalona W or Deportivo Alavés W

78%

Draw or Deportivo Alavés W

46%

Winning margin

FC Levante Badalona W wins by 2+

31%

Deportivo Alavés W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Levante Badalona W 1+ goals

86%

FC Levante Badalona W 2+ goals

58%

FC Levante Badalona W 3+ goals

31%

Deportivo Alavés W 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Alavés W 2+ goals

35%

Deportivo Alavés W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Levante Badalona W (draw refunded)

69%

Deportivo Alavés W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Levante Badalona W at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.55 · 60 matches

Deportivo Alavés W away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Levante Badalona W attack 1.02 + Deportivo Alavés W defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 1.95

Deportivo Alavés W attack 0.93 + FC Levante Badalona W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Levante Badalona W scores more

54%

level

22%

Deportivo Alavés W scores more

24%

FC Levante Badalona W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Levante Badalona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

W

WLDLL

W

DDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff