Deportivo Alavés W 1–0 FC Levante Badalona W

Deportivo Alavés W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Levante Badalona W

Sanadri 42'

4/22/2023

Primera División Femenina · Round 26Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Alavés W45%

×Draw25%

FC Levante Badalona W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Alavés WExpected goals in this matchFC Levante Badalona W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.27

Deportivo Alavés W

1.59

FC Levante Badalona W

1.27

Deportivo Alavés W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

1.23

creates per match

0.88

1.67

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés W

1.23

FC Levante Badalona W

0.88

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés W

1.67

FC Levante Badalona W

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Alavés W+0.00on par

FC Levante Badalona W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés W ↓

FC Levante Badalona W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés W or draw

69%

Deportivo Alavés W or FC Levante Badalona W

75%

Draw or FC Levante Badalona W

55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés W wins by 2+

23%

FC Levante Badalona W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés W 1+ goals

80%

Deportivo Alavés W 2+ goals

47%

Deportivo Alavés W 3+ goals

21%

FC Levante Badalona W 1+ goals

72%

FC Levante Badalona W 2+ goals

36%

FC Levante Badalona W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés W (draw refunded)

59%

FC Levante Badalona W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés W at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

FC Levante Badalona W away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.95 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés W attack 1.23 + FC Levante Badalona W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.59

FC Levante Badalona W attack 0.88 + Deportivo Alavés W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Alavés W scores more

45%

level

25%

FC Levante Badalona W scores more

31%

Deportivo Alavés W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

E. Laborde

32'

N. R. Muth

42'

Sanadri↳ Ane Miren

46'

Carla Morera← Esther Laborde

46'

Yang Lina← N. Muth

63'

Laia Parera← S. Struck

63'

N. Okobi-Okeoghene← Laura Martínez

64'

75'

83'

90+4'

90+4'

Miku Ito← Carla Armengol

90'

Ornella Vignola← Sara Carrillo

Deportivo

FC

24

Bačić

16

▼

4

15

14

21

12

▼

Muth

8

▼

10

11

7

1

3

4

2

30

▼

Laborde

17

Pinto

6

Soliveres

7

A

Miren

11

▼

Armengol

9

⚽

▼

Sanadri

19

▼

Carrillo

Manager: Iñigo Juaristi

46'▲Carla Morera←▼Esther Laborde

83'▲L. Chamorro←▼Sanadri

90+4'▲Miku Ito←▼Carla Armengol

90'▲Ornella Vignola←▼Sara Carrillo

Deportivo Alavés W substitutes

21Morera18Chamorro8Ito16Vignola5Moreira10Alba14Diéguez27Errasti20Aby13Henseler

Manager: Ferrán Cabello

46'▲Yang Lina←▼N. Muth

63'▲Laia Parera←▼S. Struck

63'▲N. Okobi-Okeoghene←▼Laura Martínez

FC Levante Badalona W substitutes

17Lina2Parera22Okobi-Okeoghene23Gantxegi27Escot13Coronado28Irene20Masferrer19Chikwelu

Match Recap: Deportivo Alavés W vs FC Levante Badalona W

Deportivo Alavés W beat FC Levante Badalona W 1-0 in Primera División Femenina on April 22, 2023.

Goals: Sanadri (42').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Deportivo Alavés W vs FC Levante Badalona W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Alavés W vs FC Levante Badalona W