FC Levadia Tallinn 2–4 Nõmme United: Result & Stats

FC Levadia Tallinn

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 0

Nõmme United

B. Tambedou 16'

E. Otoo 2'

K. Matas 88'

O. Dacosta 81', 69'

R. Chanda 75'

1/18/2026

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Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Levadia Tallinn42%

×Draw19%

Nõmme United39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Levadia TallinnExpected goals in this matchNõmme United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

2.35

FC Levadia Tallinn

2.43

Nõmme United

2.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.86

creates per match

2.83

1.86

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

FC Levadia Tallinn

1.86

Nõmme United

2.83

allows per match

FC Levadia Tallinn

1.86

Nõmme United

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Levadia Tallinn+0.00on par

Nõmme United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Levadia Tallinn ↓

Nõmme United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

FC Levadia Tallinn or draw

61%

FC Levadia Tallinn or Nõmme United

81%

Draw or Nõmme United

58%

Winning margin

FC Levadia Tallinn wins by 2+

24%

Nõmme United wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

FC Levadia Tallinn 1+ goals

91%

FC Levadia Tallinn 2+ goals

69%

FC Levadia Tallinn 3+ goals

43%

Nõmme United 1+ goals

90%

Nõmme United 2+ goals

68%

Nõmme United 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

FC Levadia Tallinn (draw refunded)

52%

Nõmme United (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Levadia Tallinn at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Nõmme United away — creates 2.83, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Levadia Tallinn attack 1.86 + Nõmme United defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.43

Nõmme United attack 2.83 + FC Levadia Tallinn defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Levadia Tallinn scores more

42%

level

19%

Nõmme United scores more

39%

FC Levadia Tallinn at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Levadia Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

16'

69'

75'

81'

88'

FC

Nõmme

Manager: Curro Torres

Manager: S. Cisakowski