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FC Levadia Tallinn vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
CANC
13:00
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
2/16/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Levadia Tallinn43%
×Draw21%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Levadia Tallinn
2.02
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.83

allows per match

FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
2.17

finishing

FC Levadia Tallinn+0.00on par
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Levadia Tallinn ↓

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

FC Levadia Tallinn or draw
64%
FC Levadia Tallinn or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
79%
Draw or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
57%

Winning margin

FC Levadia Tallinn wins by 2+
24%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Levadia Tallinn 1+ goals
87%
FC Levadia Tallinn 2+ goals
60%
FC Levadia Tallinn 3+ goals
33%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals
84%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals
55%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

FC Levadia Tallinn (draw refunded)
54%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Levadia Tallinn at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Levadia Tallinn attack 1.86 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.02

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.83 + FC Levadia Tallinn defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Levadia Tallinn scores more
43%
level
21%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more
36%

FC Levadia Tallinn at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Levadia Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Levadia Tallinn face Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with FC Levadia Tallinn hosting Metalist 1925 Kharkiv. Match starts February 16, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.