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FC Komeetat vs ViPa — Suomen Cup 2018

FC Komeetat
FC Komeetat
FT
0 – 4
ViPa
ViPa
3/13/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundVehkahalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Komeetat16%
×Draw18%
ViPa66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Komeetat
1.13
ViPa
2.46

ViPa creates 118% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

FC Komeetat
0.25
ViPa
2.67

allows per match

FC Komeetat
2.25
ViPa
2.00

finishing

FC Komeetat+0.00on par
ViPa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Komeetat ↓

ViPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

FC Komeetat or draw
34%
FC Komeetat or ViPa
82%
Draw or ViPa
84%

Winning margin

FC Komeetat wins by 2+
6%
ViPa wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

FC Komeetat 1+ goals
68%
FC Komeetat 2+ goals
31%
FC Komeetat 3+ goals
11%
ViPa 1+ goals
91%
ViPa 2+ goals
70%
ViPa 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

FC Komeetat (draw refunded)
19%
ViPa (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Komeetat at home — creates 0.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

ViPa away — creates 2.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Komeetat attack 0.25 + ViPa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

ViPa attack 2.67 + FC Komeetat defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

FC Komeetat scores more
16%
level
18%
ViPa scores more
66%

ViPa at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "ViPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Komeetat vs ViPa

ViPa beat FC Komeetat 4-0 in Suomen Cup on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Vehkahalli in Jyväskylä.