FC Komeetat 1–0 PEPO: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

FC Komeetat

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

PEPO

5/3/2022

Suomen Cup · 4th RoundComets Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Komeetat10%

×Draw14%

PEPO75%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC KomeetatExpected goals in this matchPEPO

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

2.83

FC Komeetat

0.96

PEPO

2.83

PEPO creates 195% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

0.25

creates per match

3.42

2.25

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

FC Komeetat

0.25

PEPO

3.42

allows per match

FC Komeetat

2.25

PEPO

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Komeetat+0.00on par

PEPO+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Komeetat ↓

PEPO →

0–02%

0–17%

0–29%

0–39%

0–46%

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

FC Komeetat or draw

25%

FC Komeetat or PEPO

86%

Draw or PEPO

90%

Winning margin

FC Komeetat wins by 2+

PEPO wins by 2+

55%

Team goals

FC Komeetat 1+ goals

62%

FC Komeetat 2+ goals

25%

FC Komeetat 3+ goals

PEPO 1+ goals

94%

PEPO 2+ goals

77%

PEPO 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

FC Komeetat (draw refunded)

12%

PEPO (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Komeetat at home — creates 0.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

PEPO away — creates 3.42, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Komeetat attack 0.25 + PEPO defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

PEPO attack 3.42 + FC Komeetat defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 75%?"

FC Komeetat scores more

10%

level

14%

PEPO scores more

75%

PEPO at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "PEPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff