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FC Komeetat vs OTP — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

FC Komeetat
FC Komeetat
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
OTP
OTP
7/9/2022Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 7Comets Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FC Komeetat31%
×Draw25%
OTP44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Komeetat
1.30
OTP
1.60

OTP creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 42 away

creates per match

FC Komeetat
0.82
OTP
1.29

allows per match

FC Komeetat
1.91
OTP
1.79

finishing

FC Komeetat+0.00on par
OTP+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Komeetat ↓

OTP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Komeetat or draw
56%
FC Komeetat or OTP
75%
Draw or OTP
69%

Winning margin

FC Komeetat wins by 2+
13%
OTP wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

FC Komeetat 1+ goals
73%
FC Komeetat 2+ goals
37%
FC Komeetat 3+ goals
14%
OTP 1+ goals
80%
OTP 2+ goals
47%
OTP 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Komeetat (draw refunded)
41%
OTP (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Komeetat at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

OTP away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Komeetat attack 0.82 + OTP defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.30

OTP attack 1.29 + FC Komeetat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Komeetat scores more
31%
level
25%
OTP scores more
44%

OTP at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "OTP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Komeetat vs OTP

OTP beat FC Komeetat 3-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Comets Park in Jyväskylä.