Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Komeetat vs MP II — Suomen Cup 2018

FC Komeetat
FC Komeetat
FT
0 – 2
MP II
MP II
3/18/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundVehkalammenpuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Komeetat14%
×Draw20%
MP II66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Komeetat
0.88
MP II
2.13

MP II creates 142% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

FC Komeetat
0.25
MP II
2.00

allows per match

FC Komeetat
2.25
MP II
1.50

finishing

FC Komeetat+0.00on par
MP II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Komeetat ↓

MP II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Komeetat or draw
34%
FC Komeetat or MP II
80%
Draw or MP II
86%

Winning margin

FC Komeetat wins by 2+
5%
MP II wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

FC Komeetat 1+ goals
59%
FC Komeetat 2+ goals
22%
FC Komeetat 3+ goals
6%
MP II 1+ goals
88%
MP II 2+ goals
63%
MP II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

FC Komeetat (draw refunded)
18%
MP II (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Komeetat at home — creates 0.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

MP II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Komeetat attack 0.25 + MP II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.88

MP II attack 2.00 + FC Komeetat defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

FC Komeetat scores more
14%
level
20%
MP II scores more
66%

MP II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "MP II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: FC Komeetat 0–2 MP II

MP II beat FC Komeetat 2-0 in Suomen Cup on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Vehkalammenpuisto in Jyväskylä.